What Got You Here, Won't Get You There

            I am uncertain who said this first, but I will attribute it to Lieut. Gen. Milford Beagle when he addressed our Command and General Staff Officer College class earlier this academic year. He was “briefing” the class. Regarding his technique in presenting, he suggested, “Tell them what you’re going to tell, tell them, and then tell them what you told them.” His statement resonated with me. Like most things, when it clicks, you seem to hear or see it or recognize it more frequently.

This “frequency illusion” is the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. Kate Kershner and Austin Henderson write, “This cognitive bias occurs when something you have noticed or recently learned suddenly seems to appear everywhere. But is it really appearing more frequently or is your brain just paying more attention to it?”[1]

I reckon, my brain is just paying more attention to it … and that is a good thing. Or is it? Kershner and Henderson further suggest the Baader-Meinhof effect challenges two of our cognitive processes: selective attention and confirmation bias.[2] In simple terms, selective attention is the phenomenon of learning something new, and your subconscious becomes hyper fixated on that very thing. Confirmation bias, on the other hand, suggests your observance of things confirms what you already believe.

I have heard Lieut. Gen. Beagle’s statement repeatedly since he shared it with our class (frequency illusion). While I believe it to be good practice in delivering a brief or sharing knowledge, I wanted to gain a greater understanding of how his statement, aligned with the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, informs, or hinders how we operate as a military. As our nation moves forward in the delicate balance of competition, is what we have relied upon in the past, what will make us successful in the future?

Let us consider AI. Since the Gulf War, America’s Armed Forces have led the world in the use of advanced technology. The gap, however, is closing rapidly. One means by which our peers and adversaries are seeking to gain advantage is using AI. Artificial Intelligence is the buzz phrase on everyone’s lips these days (again, the frequency illusion). There can be no doubt about the possibility of its usefulness and application. To illustrate this, I entered the following prompt in ChatGPT, “How does the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon inform the idea “if it ain’t broke then don’t fix it” or “it worked in the past, so it’ll work now?” Consider ChatGPT’s response:

The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, also known as frequency illusion, occurs when you encounter something new and suddenly start noticing it everywhere. It's tied to how our brain selectively processes information, making us more aware of things we've recently paid attention to.

When considering the idea of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" or "it worked in the past, so it'll work now," the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon might influence how we approach change or innovation. Here's how:

1.      Selective Reinforcement of Stability: If someone holds the belief that a method or tool that worked in the past will always work, they might start selectively noticing instances that confirm this belief while ignoring situations where the method no longer works. This selective attention reinforces their resistance to change, even when adapting might be necessary.

2.      Resistance to Innovation: The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon can make you feel like you're seeing evidence everywhere that your current method is effective (because you're paying more attention to examples of its success). This can lead to overconfidence in the old way of doing things, reinforcing the idea that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," even when circumstances have changed.

3.      Cognitive Bias in Decision-Making: Because the brain highlights patterns and familiar things, decision-makers might miss the need for new solutions by focusing only on past successes. The illusion of frequency (seeing the same patterns repeatedly) could make someone believe that the environment hasn't changed enough to require a new approach.

In essence, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon can reinforce confirmation bias, leading people to stick to old methods because they perceive them as continually successful, even in evolving contexts where adaptation might be more beneficial.[3]

            What are the takeaways from the prompt response? First, consider GIGO, the old computer acronym for “garbage in – garbage out.” The prompt is simple and, as such, the response is simple and safe. To get a quality, in depth response, one must input a more detailed prompt for a significant reply. Second, AI is only as good as the databases to which it has access. Repeatedly, as students, we are told to validate the responses to our prompts. While a soft response, like the one above, appears logical, for the more detailed responses we seek, validation of any response is imperative. Third, responses generate good starting pathways for further research whether it is through refining your prompt or linking to the resources ChatGPT (or other AI platforms) provides in citing source material. Finally, and this is the crux, AI provides users rapid insight or considerations which users may not have inferred until their use of AI. This becomes a force multiplier.

            While there has been resistance to the use of AI across all spectrums of humanity, without question, there is also a rising surge towards supremacy in its use to gain an advantage in competition. Executive Coach, Marshall Goldsmith, argues, “What got you here, won’t get you there.”[4] Also known as the success delusion, this phenomenon limits our ability to pursue advantage through means other than to those which we are aligned or to those which we are accustomed. We believe what has worked in the past will work today despite the confluence of diverse circumstances and external influences.

            What have I told you? I have made you aware of our need to consider options which may appear uncertain but also appear to have potential. The frequency in which AI has been included in conversations about global competition, our constant search for ways and means to extract expedited solution-driven options, and our ability to overcome biases and delusions is critical to our success in navigating the uncharted waters of the future. We must be mindful of Goldsmith’s admonition, “What got you here, won’t get you there.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[1] Kate Kershner & Austin Henderson, “What’s the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon?” accessed October 13, 2024, What's the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon? | HowStuffWorks.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Response to ChatGPT prompt, “how does the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon inform the idea "if it ain't broke then don't fix it" or "it worked in the past, so it'll work now?" October 13, 2024.

[4] Marshall Goldsmith, What Got You Here, Won’t Get You There (New York, NY: Hyperion), 2007.